About ten years ago, the United States and Israel had a vision in which they saw a strong Israel as the future superpower in the Middle East, leading the region into the next century. This vision has not been realized. The Oslo Accords represented a change in American thinking regarding the Jewish state. 

The road to Oslo that started almost eight years ago is coming to an end as a result of the last few months of Palestinian violence. These days the “new Middle East” is nothing more than a romantic notion far from achieved. However, the players in this big chess game are constantly moving. There are now new trends in the region and a newer, more realistic Middle East may be in the offing. 

The depth of United States commitment in the Persian Gulf is increasingly problematic.  The Bush administration’s stance regarding the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as stated by Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham – “We won’t beg for oil” – was a signal to the cartel that this administration’s policy is open to alternative energy sources such as West Africa, Latin America and the Caspian Basin. 

The emerging post-Cold War world seems to be centered around four geostrategic blocs: the United States, Russia, the European Union and China. This power structure will leave some key geographic zones to be contested over by these powers. The Eastern Mediterranean, encompassing U.S. allies Israel and Turkey, is most likely to be one of these zones. 

For the last several months, Russia has been implementing a neo-Soviet foreign policy and expanding its influence through its proxy –Iran– into the Persian Gulf, in an effort to control major oil supply routes. This policy culminated in the recent security alliance signed between Saudi Arabia and its regional arch-rival, Iran.  The pact effectively recognizes Iran as the dominant power in the Gulf.  

Saudi Arabia, traditionally a U.S. ally in the Gulf, has probably come to the conclusion that the United States lacks resolve in the Gulf, particularly after signaling it has no real interest to challenge Saddam Hussein.  This realization brought the Saudis to do what, in the past would have been considered “making a deal with the devil” – i.e. formally accommodating Iran’s goals in the region. 

Second, the European Union led by France seems to prefer an Arab solution to the current Middle East conflict. Coupled with spreading anti-Americanism in Europe, and the attempt to establish a European government it is likely that the E.U. will try to supplant the U.S. as the dominant power in the Middle East. Evidence for these moves can be found in the recent threats made by the E.U. to place tariffs on Israeli goods manufactured in the West Bank and Gaza, and French diplomatic support of Syria and Iran.  

In this new environment, Israel and Turkey, both strategically significant to American interests in the region, find themselves in a dangerous vacuum. It seems increasingly obvious that this area will be a zone of contention between the E.U. and the Russians. There is, however, another way to maintain and nourish American interests in the region, namely, an expansion of the already existing Israeli-Turkish security alliance. 

Both Israel and Turkey have an interest in expanding this relationship. Turkey, on the one hand, has been urging Israel for some time for the technological cooperation that will increase foreign investment in Turkey and will reduce the impact of the recent economic crisis. Moreover, the Turkish government has declared its interest in buying the Israeli ballistic missile defense system – the Arrow– in order to deploy it on their border with Iran. Israel, on the other hand, will be able to import water from the Turks in order to recover from its current water crisis. Selling the Arrow system to Turkey will provide the Israeli defense industry funds to improve and continue the development of other defense related high-tech programs.  

We are facing a historic moment where a new geostrategic framework may emerge from this region, with Israel and Turkey and other like-minded states such as Jordan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and a free Lebanon, could develop a new regional system based on the economic and political assumptions of the West.  Development of such a framework would provide a reason for the U.S. to remain engaged in this part of the world. 

It is in the Bush administration’s interests to expand the Israeli-Turkish alliance to a regional one based on security and economic interest as a means to promote Western ideals and stability, as well as securing routes of energy coming from the Caspian Sea. The United States has a critical role to play behind the scenes in order to bind together this promising alliance system into a coherent geopolitical reality.  

The author is a strategic research fellow at the Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies.

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